In November 1980, the Sacramento Bee ran a story about a local real estate agent named Rea Hook. Mortgage rates had climbed from around 8.5% in the late 1970s to 14.3% by the end of that year, buyers had gone home, and Hook's take on the whole mess was blunt: "The good markets don't last. And neither do the bad ones."

Ryan Lundquist dug that clipping up for the Sacramento Appraisal Blog this month in a post titled "The housing market smells like the early '80s." He wrote it for appraisers, agents, and loan officers, and it's mostly about attitude: "We can't control the market, but we can control our mindset." That's sound advice for people who sell houses for a living. But most people reading this are trying to buy or sell one house, and the question they bring us is different. If the market is stuck, what do I actually do?

Peter has been a full-time Realtor since 1999. He sold through the 2005 peak, the 2008 crash, the long recovery, the 2020–2022 frenzy, and now this. Here's what a stuck market looks like from that seat, and what it tends to reward.

What "Stuck" Means in Numbers

Lundquist calls the current market "very stuck" and a "slow burn," and the data agrees with him. A few reference points, all approximate as of early September 2026:

  • Sales volume is still roughly 30% below the 2022 peak by his count, even though closed sales through the first half of 2026 ran about 5% ahead of 2025. That's improvement from a very low floor.
  • Prices are essentially flat. Depending on the county and the month, the regional median has bounced between roughly flat and slightly negative year over year. Small enough that nobody feels it day to day, and a long way from the appreciation sellers got used to.
  • Mortgage rates are in the high 6s. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.71% on September 3, up from 6.50% a year earlier. Check the current figure; it moves weekly.
  • Inventory is thin. In an earlier post, Lundquist noted the region had about three times as many listings in 2008 as it has today, roughly 9,000 more homes for sale.
  • Short sales are trickling back, in small numbers. We wrote about that this summer, and the "surge" amounted to a dozen extra sales.

And one figure that isn't about houses at all: the Sacramento Association of Realtors has lost more than 2,000 members in three years. When volume falls 30%, a lot of part-time agents find other work. Hold that thought.

Why 1980 Rhymes (and Why It Doesn't)

The temptation with a headline like Lundquist's is to read "early '80s" as a forecast. It isn't. Look at the actual numbers and today barely resembles 1980. Rates then were more than double what they are now — you can see the whole climb on the Federal Reserve's mortgage rate series. Inflation was in the double digits. And the shortage in 1980 was buyers, not homes.

Today it's the reverse. Buyers exist, and the proof is in the $400,000–$500,000 range, where sales have grown the most this year. What's missing is supply. Owners with 3% mortgages are staying put, and that lock-in is what keeps inventory near one-third of 2008 levels. We laid out that argument in Shrinking Supply, Not Rates, Is Sacramento's 2026 Story, and nothing since has changed our mind.

So what actually rhymes? The psychology. In 1980, buyers waited for rates to come down. In 2026, buyers are waiting for rates to come down. Sellers in 1980 waited for the phone to ring at last year's price. Sellers in 2026 are doing the same thing with a 2022 Zestimate in their head. Lundquist's phrase is "history tends to rhyme," and the rhyme is the waiting game. The waiting game is where people lose money in a stuck market, in both directions.

What a Stuck Market Rewards If You're Buying

Stuck markets are quietly good for prepared buyers in ways a frenzy never is.

  • Competition thins out above the entry tier. A move-in-ready home under $500,000 in Citrus Heights or Rancho Cordova can still draw multiple offers in a weekend. From the mid-$600,000s up, buyers have room to breathe. In Elk Grove and Natomas especially, listings have been more plentiful and sellers more willing to talk.
  • Anything sitting 30-plus days is a negotiation. A listing that hasn't gone pending in a month is usually mispriced, and the seller knows it by week five. That's where you ask for price, credits, or both.
  • Seller credits are back. Instead of pushing for a lower price, ask for a closing-cost credit and use it to buy down the rate. On a high-6s loan, a credit that buys the rate down a half point or so can matter more to your monthly payment than a $10,000 price cut. Have your lender run both versions side by side.
  • "Marry the house, date the rate" needs an asterisk. The idea is you buy now and refinance when rates drop. Sometimes that works out. But nobody, including the people who said rates would fall in 2024 and again in 2025, can promise you a refinance window. Only take on a payment you can carry if the rate never moves. If the payment is the obstacle, CalHFA down payment assistance is worth a look before you shelve the idea.
  • Hire someone who has sold through a down cycle. Here's where those 2,000 departed agents matter to you. The agents still working have, for the most part, been doing this full time and through more than one kind of market. In a negotiation over credits, repairs, and price on a home that's been sitting, that experience is the whole ballgame.

What a Stuck Market Rewards If You're Selling

Rea Hook's line cuts both ways. Bad markets don't last, which is comforting. But neither does the window you're in right now, and waiting for 2022 pricing to come back is the most expensive strategy a seller can choose. Prices have been flat for a couple of years. List at what the house would have fetched three summers ago and you sit, you cut, and you eventually sell for less than you'd have gotten by pricing right the first week. We've watched it happen dozens of times since 2023.

What still works:

  • Price to today's comparable sales, not your memory. In a flat market, the last 60 to 90 days of nearby sales are the truth. A real home valuation built on your street, not a portal estimate, is the starting point.
  • Condition is doing more work than usual. Updated, well-prepared homes are selling in the first two weeks; dated ones at the same price are sitting. We wrote about this in The Condition Gap, and it has held up all summer.
  • Expect to negotiate. Buyers will ask for credits and repairs. Budget for it, and remember that a credit toward the buyer's rate often costs you less than a price reduction of the same size.
  • Thin inventory is still your tailwind. You're competing against a fraction of the listings a seller faced in 2008. A well-priced, well-presented home is scarce right now, and scarce things sell.

This Is Not 2008 Either

One more thing, because "early '80s" is a headline that makes some people hear "crash." Nothing in the current data looks like 2008. Back then the region had roughly three times today's inventory, a large share of owners had little or no equity, and underwriting had come apart. Today, by Lundquist's read of ICE Mortgage Technology data this summer, less than 1% of Sacramento mortgages are underwater. Most owners have years of equity and a low fixed rate. That's why homes aren't flooding the market, and it's why flat prices haven't turned into falling ones.

A stuck market is frustrating. It is not dangerous the way 2008 was. Those are different problems with different playbooks.

The Bottom Line

Lundquist closed his post with a line worth borrowing: "Don't wait for a vibrant market before choosing to have a vibrant life." For buyers and sellers, the version is simpler. Don't wait for a market that may not show up on your schedule. Buy the payment you can carry, sell at the price the last 90 days support, and negotiate the rest. That's what Rea Hook was doing in 1980, and it has worked in every stuck market since.

And go read Lundquist's post yourself. He's the most honest chronicler of this market that Sacramento has, and the Bee clipping alone is worth the click.

Want a read on what this market means for your specific situation? Search Sacramento homes for sale, get a real home valuation, or contact us.

Or call us directly: (916) 739-2424

The Peter Parker Team | DRE# 01257844 | eXp Realty DRE# 01878277
Market data referenced from the Sacramento Appraisal Blog (September 3 and August 6, 2026) and Freddie Mac (September 3, 2026) and is approximate as of early September 2026. Market conditions and mortgage rates change frequently; verify current figures before making a decision. This is general information, not financial or legal advice.