Ryan Lundquist opened his July market recap with a fair concession: no housing headline was going to compete with the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding. He's right, and honestly, the housing news wouldn't have led the broadcast anyway — because the biggest story in Sacramento real estate right now is a quiet one. In his early-July market recap on the Sacramento Appraisal Blog, the numbers say the market has genuinely improved this year. Almost nobody we talk to believes it. Both things are true, and the gap between them is worth understanding whether you're buying or selling.
The Numbers Behind "A Little Better"
Here's what the first half of 2026 actually produced, per Lundquist's data: closed sales are up 4.9% year over year across the region — roughly 17,000 sales adding up to about $10.6 billion in volume. June was the strongest June for closed sales since 2022. New construction chipped in nearly 250 more homes sold than the same stretch last year. That's real growth after several years of a market everyone described as stuck.
He's honest about the caveats, and they matter. Before June, the year was up slightly less than 3%, and June 2025 was a particularly weak month to compare against — so the June pop flatters the trend. Condo volume has stayed flat while detached homes carried the growth. And he flags some softness in new-home volume in June itself: "We want to watch new homes volume closely and not ignore some weakness in June." A 5% improvement built partly on a weak comparison is progress, not a boom. Nobody should read it as 2021.
Why It Doesn't Feel Better
If sales are up, why does every buyer we sit down with still describe this market as brutal? Lundquist names it plainly: "Affordability is still really challenging," and his bottom line is the one we'd underline twice — "Don't expect a sharper change to the market without a sharper change to affordability."
The mechanics are simple. A buyer doesn't experience sales volume; a buyer experiences a monthly payment. At rates in the mid-6% range — check Freddie Mac's weekly survey for the current number — every $100,000 borrowed costs roughly $630 a month in principal and interest. On a $500,000 home with 10% down, that math dominates the conversation long before anyone celebrates a 4.9% regional volume increase. Sellers, meanwhile, don't experience the region's $10.6 billion either; they experience the three buyers who did or didn't show up to their open house. Small aggregate improvements are invisible at the level where people actually live. That's not a reason to dismiss the growth — it's a reason to be precise about where it's happening.
Where the Growth Actually Lives
This is the part of Lundquist's post we'd tape to the refrigerator: the strongest growth came in the $400,000–$500,000 range, and 19.2% of transactions in that band used FHA financing. Translate that out of statistics and into a person: the buyer driving Sacramento's 2026 improvement is an entry-level buyer with a modest down payment, often using FHA or CalHFA assistance programs, shopping for the most affordable solid house they can find.
We can put addresses to that. In our corner of the region, the $400K–$500K single-family search leads to places like Citrus Heights, Rancho Cordova, Rosemont, and parts of South Natomas. Those are the neighborhoods where this statistic turns into Saturday-morning showing traffic and multiple-offer weekends — and where sellers of clean, well-priced homes are having a better year than the regional averages suggest. Earlier this month we dug into what that FHA concentration means for low-down-payment buyers in a flat-price market: it's the group with the thinnest equity cushion, which makes buying the right house at the right price more important in this band, not less.
The Condo Asterisk
One segment sat out the improvement entirely: condos. Lundquist's charts show condo volume flat while detached homes carried the growth, and we see the reason at kitchen tables every week. HOA dues and rising insurance costs stack on top of the mortgage, so a condo that looks affordable on price often isn't on monthly cost. An entry-level buyer comparing a condo against a detached house at a similar all-in payment usually takes the house and the yard. If condo living is what you actually want, though, the flat volume cuts in your favor — it's one of the few corners of this market where you can still negotiate without a crowd behind you. Our Midtown Sacramento guide covers the region's biggest condo market, HOA math included.
The New-Construction Wrinkle
Those extra 250 new-home sales deserve a comment, because new construction is competing on the one thing resale sellers can't easily match: the payment. Builders can buy down a buyer's interest rate, cover closing costs, and price to move standing inventory — which is exactly how you sell homes into an affordability-constrained market. Peter spent four years as a sales manager for builders before running this team, so we'll offer the advice we always give: the builder's friendly on-site agent works for the builder. Bring your own representation (it typically costs you nothing), get the incentive package in writing, and compare the net deal against nearby resale — sometimes the shiny buydown beats the resale math, and sometimes it quietly doesn't.
What This Means for You
If you're buying: the improvement is concentrated in exactly the band where you're probably shopping, which means more competition, not less. Get fully underwritten before you shop, and don't assume "the market is better" headlines mean you can wait — in the entry-level band, the good ones are moving. If the payment is the wall, ask about buydowns, assistance programs, and the new-construction route.
If you're selling: be careful reading a 4.9% headline as permission to price ambitiously. The growth is a $400K–$500K story; if your home sits above that band, your market is still slow-dancing, and overpricing into it remains the most expensive mistake available. What is working in every band is condition — Lundquist notes that homes in good condition are a hot commodity, which is the condition gap we wrote about in June still doing its work.
The Bottom Line
The market really is a little better — and "a little better" is doing a lot of load-bearing work in that sentence. Volume is up almost 5%, the entry-level band is genuinely busy, builders are buying their way to sales, and affordability still sets the ceiling on all of it. Lundquist's advice to agents was to pick optimism and go where the change is. Our version for buyers and sellers: skip both the doom and the hype, and get specific about your price band and your neighborhood, because that's the level where this market is actually decided. Lundquist's full breakdown with the charts is worth your time — and his question to readers ("Are you noticing any volume change?") is one we're happy to answer for your specific street.
Want to know what "a little better" means for your address? Search Sacramento homes for sale, get a real home valuation, or contact us.
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The Peter Parker Team | DRE# 01257844 | eXp Realty DRE# 01878277
Market data referenced from the Sacramento Appraisal Blog (July 8, 2026) and approximate as of mid-2026. Market conditions and mortgage rates change frequently; verify current figures before making a decision. This is general information, not financial or legal advice.